Decarbonising Australia's power sector would create thousands of jobs
If COP31 co-host Australia adopted renewable energy targets aligned with a Paris-aligned trajectory, it would create thousands more power sector jobs than would be lost to the corresponding fossil fuel phase-out, according to a new report released by Climate Analytics today.
The report models job opportunities in the electricity generation sector in a scenario that sees a fossil fuel phase-out and a transition to renewables.
The analysis is based on Climate Analytics' recent Fossil Free Australia report that shows Australia can align emissions with 1.5˚C by phasing out fossil fuels from its economy. This report flags that uncertainty over Australia's renewable energy progress after 2030, and the lack of timeline for the elimination of coal and gas from its electricity system, create uncertainty for investments and job creation in the energy transition.
"Australia is about to preside over climate negotiations that will include discussing a global transition away from fossil fuels and taking forward the Belem Declaration. But it also needs to get its own house in order. We find that if it were to decarbonise its economy, beginning with its power sector, it would create thousands of jobs all the way to 2050," said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare.
"The government needs to deliver its existing 2030 renewables target, adopt a 1.5°C-aligned target of 96% by 2035 and commit to transitioning away from fossil fuels. Instead it plans to continue exporting fossil gas all the way to 2070, which is not a great look for the government in charge of COP 31 negotiations."
Clean Electrification
He also noted that Australia, with COP31 host Türkiye, was also proposing a new global goal of 35% electrification by 2035. To cut emissions, this electrification must be from clean sources, and the global goal should explicitly refer to that.
"This would also fit into our Paris-aligned scenario, which require an electricity share in final energy demand of Australia to reach 50% by 2035 with 96% of this electricity to be generated from renewable sources. Unfortunately, Australia doesn't appear ready to commit to any new domestic targets."
The jobs
In a Paris-aligned pathway, with increased renewables targets, Australia's power sector would employ more than ten times as many full time equivalent (FTE) workers in 2050 as legacy, carbon-intensive fossil fuel power generation does today. Annual labour demand in Australia's national power sector would more than double - from 37,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs in 2025 to 87,000 in 2050.
Under Australia's current policies, assuming, optimistically, that the government reaches its renewable and climate targets, employment in the power sector would only increase to 51,000 FTE jobs by 2050. It would rise to around 55,000 in 2030, but these jobs would then fall by a third to around 35,000 by 2033 and stay below the 2030 level until the late 2040's - the direct result of Australia's lack of ambition and planning beyond 2030.
"The lack of renewables targets beyond 2035 and timeline for the retirement of coal and gas generators creates uncertainties for the workers we will need in this transition," said Koki Baba, Climate Analytics analyst and lead author of the report.
"Starting to plan the next decade now is critical for the transition, and to achieve the goal of reaching net-zero by 2050," he said.
Strong targets and policies are therefore a prerequisite for a just transition, they provide the predictability and certainty that workers, communities and investors need.
The report urges the government to learn from past mistakes over the need for a just transition for workers, especially in the coal industry where current jobs are concentrated in just a few regions.
"These workers - and the communities they live in - will need strong support from the government," said Baba.
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