AGP Executive Report

Oil & Gas Windfalls: Chevron posted its largest quarterly profit ever and Exxon income surged as the Iran war tightened oil supply and kept crude near ~$90, with refinery and petrochemical margins also boosting earnings. Gasoline vs Crude Pricing: A new explainer breaks down why pump prices don’t always track crude—refining, transport, distribution, and taxes can move differently. Data Centers vs Power Bills: Georgia’s data-center boom is colliding with regulator promises, with critics saying grid-expansion costs tied to data centers are already showing up on residential bills. Grid Reliability & Permits: FERC cleared TeraWulf’s purchase of the Morgantown power plant in Maryland, but only for ownership transfer—future data-center or generation changes still need more approvals. Clean Power Buildout: China approved four new nuclear projects totaling over $25B, while Tata Power started an 800 MW wind-solar project in Andhra Pradesh with battery storage. Storage Investment: Zenobē acquired Germany’s sdp energie to tap a 1.75 GW battery pipeline, and Antora Energy raised $550M to scale thermal battery deployments. Wildfire & Nuclear Cooling Risks: Hungary will shut its Paks nuclear plant due to Danube low water levels, and Romania declared an August nationwide alert as drought threatens Cernavoda output. Policy & Consumer Protection: A Philippines bill would let the president impose power-rate caps during energy emergencies, as electricity prices keep rising. Renewables & Grid Scheduling: Telangana is considering shifting agricultural pumping to daytime to cut a 3,000-MW morning deficit when solar isn’t available. Local Energy Disruptions: North Central Washington utilities warned of possible public safety power shutoffs due to gusty winds and wildfire danger.

North Sea Shake-Up: BP has launched a formal process to sell its UK North Sea oil and gas business, ending more than 60 years of production and putting about 1,100 jobs at risk, as the company trims debt and refocuses capital. South Africa Power Reform: President Cyril Ramaphosa endorsed the first phase of Eskom restructuring, including plans for an independent Transmission System Operator and warnings over rising municipal debt. Renewables Build-Out (Spain): EDP commissioned the Las Lomillas hybrid wind-solar project with a battery storage system in Spain, adding integrated storage to its Iberian portfolio. Renewables Build-Out (India): Tata Power Renewable Energy started an 800 MW wind+solar project in Andhra Pradesh with 25 MW/50 MWh BESS and about 4,000 jobs, while Suzlon handles wind EPC. Philippines Retail Power Market: FDC Misamis signed a two-year supply deal to provide 20 MW to COREnergy for contestable power customers, expanding retail choice. Energy Bills Pressure (UK): Scotland’s Warm Home Discount is expanding to about 345,000 households, with officials urging people to check their name on bills by Aug 23. Grid Stress From Climate: Europe’s worst drought in decades is disrupting Danube shipping and forcing partial nuclear curtailments, with Hungary warning Paks could shut down within days. Oil Market Watch: Oil prices eased but stayed on track for a roughly 20% monthly gain as Hormuz flows improved despite Middle East risks. Hydrogen/Carbon Storage Tech: Provaris advanced its compressed hydrogen and liquid carbon dioxide storage work, completing structural engineering for a large LCO₂ tank design.

AI & Power Buildouts: The U.S. DOE backed a $100B AI data center campus at the Paducah site, with Brookfield leasing 785 acres and NextEra, Big Rivers and local utilities set to deliver power and gas generation on a staged timeline. Grid Reliability & Heat: The DOE issued an emergency order for extreme heat, letting the Southwest Power Pool dispatch backup generation across 17 states, including South Dakota, as summer demand spikes. Electricity Prices in Europe: A new analysis argues Europe’s biggest energy problem is expensive power draining industry, not supply shortages. Oil Market Volatility: Shell’s profit more than tripled to $10.8B as the Middle East war lifted crude prices, while markets tracked earnings and central bank signals. Energy Security via Nuclear/Geopolitics: Rosatom is shifting toward strategic military goals and expanding its role in Arctic shipping, while Europe is urged to expand nuclear and renewables to keep AI-era power affordable. Middle East Attacks on Gas Infrastructure: Egypt confirmed a drone strike caused a fire on gas vessels at Damietta, raising concerns for key export routes. Policy & Consumer Impact: Ontario warned gas prices may spike ahead of the Civic holiday weekend as Middle East tensions keep pump pricing unstable. Transmission Upgrade: Scotland approved a £110M refurbishment of a major 400kV line linking Glasgow and Edinburgh to strengthen the corridor. Data Centers Meet Local Concerns: In the U.S., a planned natural gas plant permit near a data center project highlights how AI growth keeps colliding with emissions and permitting fights.

Ultra-Supercritical Power Push (India): L&T Energy CarbonLite Solutions secured NTPC’s Limited Notice to Proceed for the 2x800 MW Lara Stage-III thermal project in Chhattisgarh, targeting 1,600 MW of baseload capacity once environmental clearance and LNTP steps are done. Renewables + Storage (Australia): Trinasolar will supply high-efficiency Vertex S+ modules for the 27 MW Good Earth Green Hydrogen and Ammonia project near Moree, NSW, supporting up to 200 tonnes of green hydrogen and 4,500 tonnes of low-carbon ammonia annually. Grid Flexibility (Montenegro): Masdar and EPCG moved a 2 GW partnership into execution with 150 MW solar agreements and plans to assess 400+ MW pumped hydro storage. Energy Security Tech (Europe): A hydrogen-on-demand pitch targets Europe’s winter gas pressure by producing hydrogen at the point of use, aiming to reduce reliance on stored or shipped fuel. Oil Market Volatility (Middle East): Shell’s profits more than doubled on Middle East-driven price swings, while oil prices eased as Gulf supply flows held up despite renewed Iran-related risks. Coal Transition Signal (China): China’s coal-fired power share fell to 49.7% in H1 2026 for the first time below 50%, alongside continued wind and solar capacity growth. Waste-to-Energy (Indonesia): Indonesia broke ground on the Legok Nangka waste-to-energy plant in West Java, expected to generate about 40 MW and start operations in 2029. EV Demand (IEA): Global EV sales rebounded in Q2 2026, with growth in Australia, Europe, South Korea and others offsetting weaker China and US demand. Data Centers + Power (US/Global): WEC Energy Group said it’s in talks to serve potential new Wisconsin data center projects as AI demand strains grids. Solar Permitting + Jobs (New Zealand): Solar installers warn of a worker shortage unless training and broader electrical support keep pace with subsidy-driven rooftop solar growth.

Middle East Energy Shock: Drone strikes set a US-owned gas storage tanker and a Greek LNG-linked vessel ablaze at Egypt’s Damietta port, as the US-Iran conflict escalates and war risk lifts crude. Oil Market Volatility: Oil prices surged more than 7% after Trump warned of a forceful response to Iran, while the US issued fresh Iran sanctions targeting tankers and entities. Grid Under Strain: Montana received a federal emergency order to tap unused backup power during extreme heat, while Libya’s power cuts sparked protests and even disruptions at the Mellitah oil-and-gas complex. Nuclear Momentum: South Korea floated draft law for nuclear-powered submarines with US cooperation, and Utah joined finalists for a DOE “nuclear lifecycle innovation campus.” Data Centers vs Power Rules: NV Energy sued Tract over alleged attempts to bypass Nevada’s data center energy regulation, as states debate how AI demand affects reliability. Renewables Policy Push: Marcos reaffirmed the Philippines’ 50% renewables goal by 2040, while Maryland rolled out new clean-energy funding to cut bills. Solar Storage Expansion: India’s MNRE allows DISCOMs to use Surya Ghar funds for battery storage, and Nigeria inaugurated a DICON solar-plus-storage system to boost power for defense industry.

Middle East Oil Shock: Oil prices swung higher as US-Saudi strikes and Iranian missile activity reignited supply fears, lifting Brent and WTI by about 3–4% in early trade. Libya Grid Stability: Libya’s PM ordered security for the Mellitah complex after protesters shut gas lines, with gas flows later restored and the power grid gradually returning to normal. US-Saudi Refining Push: A US-Saudi consortium (MERA Oil) moved into final site selection for a $5bn integrated refinery and export corridor, with a preferred host expected by end-2026. AI Meets Power Grid: Ofgem proposed upfront fees and stricter readiness checks to stop speculative AI data centre projects from clogging Britain’s grid connection queue. Tech Policy Meets Energy Hardware: The FCC added new Chinese humanoid/quad robots and connected power inverters to its security “Covered List,” aiming to protect critical infrastructure and the AI supply chain. Renewables on the Ground: In India, Inox Wind won a repeat INR 1,600 crore, 200MW turnkey order from NLC India, scheduled for commissioning within 24 months. Philippines Energy Push: Marcos reiterated a renewables target of 50% by 2040 and opened an interactive energy museum at the DOE. Local Power Reliability: A solar-powered science lab in South Africa’s Merebank keeps STEM lessons running during outages.

Electricity affordability pressure: Davao City lawmakers say residential power rates at Davao Light and Power jumped nearly 35% in seven months, with some bills reportedly quadrupling, and they’re pushing for hearings, rate rollbacks, and structural fixes. Nuclear waste policy: The U.S. Department of Energy says five states could host “Nuclear Lifecycle Innovation Campuses,” potentially including sites for about 100,000 metric tons of nuclear waste, alongside enrichment and fuel work. Grid + data center politics: Texas power regulators want lawmakers to expand authority over data centers after Gov. Abbott’s directive to make facilities cover grid costs. 24/7 clean power finance: Masdar secured about $5.1bn in bank funding for a UAE solar-plus-batteries project aimed at firm, around-the-clock electricity. Renewables buildout: Ontario’s IESO signed an agreement for Aecon’s 150MW/1,200MWh Simcoe Battery project, targeting 2030 operations. Regional energy deals: Turkey and Iraq advanced cooperation via Kirkuk and broader energy talks, while Nepal and India agreed to raise electricity export capacity to 1,650MW. Oil market risk backdrop: Red Sea tankers keep transiting Bab el-Mandeb despite Houthi threats as Hormuz tensions ease and shipping remains cautious.

Philippines Power Reform: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. urged Congress to amend EPIRA to scrap “system loss” charges billed to consumers, arguing households shouldn’t pay for grid inefficiencies (and VAT on top). Malaysia Data Centres & Grid Stress: Malaysia’s data-centre boom is drawing OECD warnings about strain on electricity and water, while the government says approvals go through a Data Centre Task Force to protect energy security. Renewables Push in Asia: Penang says renewables are ~6% of its energy mix and targets 10% by 2030, while Andhra Pradesh reports rapid rooftop solar growth under PM Surya Ghar. Oil & Geopolitics: Oil prices slid after the US paused Iran strikes, easing Hormuz supply fears, but Europe and Asia are still bracing for a tough winter. Australia Fuel Security: Australia is considering its first new oil refinery in 60+ years amid Middle East supply risks, with a feasibility study planned. Bangladesh LNG Disruption: A fault at Excelerate’s Moheshkhali floating LNG terminal cut gas to the national grid, forcing industrial production curbs. Nuclear Expansion Moves: Vietnam launched a new EXCEL Services unit to support its nuclear ambitions, as the Philippines debates nuclear waste and import dependence.

Nuclear Policy Clash (Philippines): After President Marcos Jr. revived nuclear plans in his penultimate Sona, Sen. Risa Hontiveros renewed opposition, citing lack of local fuel inputs and unresolved nuclear waste disposal. Middle East Energy Security: Yemen’s Houthis and Saudi officials traded accusations over drone strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure, with Bahrain also condemning attacks and warning of wider energy instability. Iraq Power Crunch: Iraq’s parliament backed a package to tackle electricity shortages, including reopening older corruption cases and pushing more solar via soft loans and easier grid connections, as the country struggles to meet demand amid major capacity losses. Oil Route Diversification (Iraq-Lebanon): Lebanon offered Iraq a Mediterranean transit path to bypass Hormuz, while Iraq also moves to extend pipeline exports via Turkey and revive routes through Syria. Grid Stress in the US: The US DOE issued emergency orders for 17 states as extreme heat tightens reserves, while data-center growth is adding pressure on power systems. Renewables Tariff Backlash (Bermuda): Environmental groups plan a protest over higher solar-related electricity charges, arguing the new tariff structure unfairly raises costs for residential solar customers. Oil Markets: Oil slid sharply on hopes of US-Iran de-escalation, easing fears for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Investment Watch: Apollo Global agreed to invest $1.5b in Keppel’s Singapore oil rig fund, signaling continued appetite for offshore energy assets.

Oil Markets: Brent and WTI slid more than 5% after the US and Iran paused strikes, easing near-term supply fears even as Red Sea and Hormuz risks keep prices volatile. Nigeria Energy Relief: Cooking gas (LPG) prices dropped across Nigeria, with some depots selling near N1,200/kg as imports and depot rates ease. Philippines Power Policy: Sen. Erwin Tulfo filed a resolution to investigate electricity price hikes and push for consumer protection and fair, reasonable power rates. Grid & Access in Africa: Nigeria’s Rural Electrification Agency targets 3.7GW of local solar PV manufacturing by 2027 to cut import dependence and expand access. Renewables Buildout: India’s Waaree Renewable won EPC awards for 800MWac/1,082MWp solar projects, with delivery through FY27-28. Asia Energy Investment: Japan’s finance institutions are considering loans for Japanese firms to build a US gas plant under Tokyo’s $550bn investment-for-tariff-relief deal. Nuclear Supply Chain: Doosan Enerbility secured components work for China’s Laiyang nuclear expansion, underscoring continued reactor demand. Risk Management for Power: Insurer FM warns AI-driven data centre growth is stressing power infrastructure and driving costly generation losses.

Middle East Energy Shock: A tanker exploded after hitting a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran–U.S. tensions and Houthi attacks keep shipping risk elevated, pushing oil back toward $100 and raising fears of a prolonged supply squeeze. U.S. Consumer Impact: With crude pressure feeding through to retail, U.S. gas prices jumped back above $4 a gallon on average, reviving election-year cost concerns. Nuclear Politics: A Republican senator broke ranks with Trump over a controversial U.S.–Saudi nuclear deal, while U.S. lawmakers stressed preventing a nuclear Iran remains the top priority. Grid & Efficiency Moves: Scotland’s SSEN is offering free upgrades to remove “looped” connections so homes can better adopt EVs, heat pumps and solar; in Bahrain, regulators say smarter AC settings and higher-rated units can cut cooling electricity use by about 20%. Clean Power Development: Egypt and the UK discussed expanding renewables, grid upgrades and battery storage; Yemen launched workshops for a 2026–2035 electricity and water strategy. Energy Business: Gazprom set a record for daily gas deliveries to China via Power of Siberia, underscoring ongoing pipeline reliance. Local Energy Access: India’s Indian Oil rolled out “Indane XtraLite Now” for express LPG cylinder delivery in 4 hours.

Middle East Energy Shock: Houthi strikes hit Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu as the US pauses Iran strikes, raising fears for Red Sea shipping and refined fuel availability. Oil Price Pressure: Brent stayed near $100 after the Strait of Hormuz disruption and war-driven volatility, with analysts warning crude could climb again. Gas Storage Strain in Europe: Equinor says Europe may not reach 80% gas storage before winter due to tight LNG supply and competition from Asia. Grid Tightness in the Philippines: NGCP forecasts thin margins for the Visayas grid late July, with demand near 2.47GW against limited supply. Consumer Backlash in Manila: A Senate inquiry is filed over rising power bills, while consumer groups plan a “people’s Sona” to demand relief. Renewables vs. Power Costs: A Philippines debate intensifies over whether renewable expansion is delivering fair outcomes, amid claims of displacement and unequal benefits. Solar Supply Bottleneck in India: Cell shortages are idling nearly a third of India’s solar panel makers, threatening 2030 targets. EU Sanctions: The EU adds Russia’s Inter RAO to its sanctions list, targeting indirect ownership of Georgian power assets. Cybersecurity for Utilities: US agencies warn of “Ghostware” targeting energy and water operational systems.

Armed Forces & Fusion: UKAEA at Culham signed the Armed Forces Covenant to pull more veterans into fusion careers, building on its FOSTER skills programme. Middle East Energy Security: Yemen’s Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi oil and energy facilities in Jizan and Yanbu as airstrikes hit Houthi sites in northern Yemen, widening disruption risk for Red Sea supply routes. US Nuclear Push: A “nuclear renaissance” narrative grew as the Trump administration hailed fast-tracked advanced reactor demos, while critics warned the Saudi nuclear deal could trigger a broader enrichment race. US Clean-Energy Funding Fight: Court filings say DOE canceled $7.6B in clean-energy grants to Democratic-leaning states “based solely” on state political identity, intensifying backlash over politicized energy policy. Grid Reliability & Power Buildout: Iraq’s electricity minister said deals with Washington and Tehran plus regional interconnections should lift output soon, while extreme heat continues to strain power grids. Renewables Growth in Practice: Nigeria’s REA said renewables have attracted $2B+ but created only ~70,000 jobs, urging local capacity; India’s NTPC Green Energy reported strong Q1 FY27 gains on solar and wind additions. Energy Costs at Home: A UK housing project offered mortgage payment breaks alongside A-rated, solar-and-heat-pump homes, while US fuel-price reports showed easing but continued volatility tied to Middle East tensions and refinery conditions.

Oil & Gas Markets: Crude is back above $100 as U.S.-Iran tensions and Red Sea shipping disruptions keep supply fears front and center, with analysts warning prices could overshoot even after brief dips. Middle East Risk: The Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea bottlenecks are again driving volatility, while markets weigh whether any de-escalation can restore confidence. Nuclear Diplomacy: Trump says the U.S. won’t finalize a civilian nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia unless Riyadh joins the Abraham Accords, raising proliferation and political scrutiny. Clean Energy Politics: The U.S. Department of Energy acknowledged in court filings that clean-energy grants were canceled based on whether recipient states voted “blue,” triggering legal and political backlash. Grid & Power Costs: Utilities and regulators across regions point to fuel and geopolitical pressures; in the Philippines, Meralco cites higher generation charges tied to fuel, peso weakness, and a shift toward gas. Infrastructure Deals: Kuwait’s KPC signed a $16bn lease-and-leaseback for its crude pipeline network, while India’s Adani Energy Solutions won a major transmission contract tied to green hydrogen and data-center demand. AI Power Demand: Florida’s governor race is colliding with AI data center growth, with proposals pushing for data centers to pay for power and water. Local Electricity Troubles: In Mindoro, a power cooperative disputes claims about rate levels and says it billed less than its purchased-power cost, with consumers seeking an investigation.

US-Saudi Nuclear Deal Fallout: Trump’s new Israel-normalization condition is rattling the landmark US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement, with Saudi officials signaling it’s a non-starter and raising proliferation and market-access questions. Cuba Sanctions: The US imposed new sanctions on Cuban energy and related entities, aiming to squeeze foreign-currency inflows tied to oil and medical exports. Energy Markets & Iran Risk: Oil swung as Iran-war escalation kept pressure on crude above $100 before easing; analysts warn gasoline could climb again as supply shocks and Hormuz disruption feed through to pumps and groceries. Drilling Signals: Baker Hughes said US rig counts fell for the first time in six weeks, hinting at cautious production plans amid volatile geopolitics. Grid & Renewables Buildout: The Carolinas won up to $160m for next-gen grid modernization; Ukraine’s regulator is set to raise Ukrenergo transmission rates Aug 1 pending a legal fix; and India reported peak demand up 12% in Apr–Jun with record variable renewables. AI Power Demand: Alabama and other regions are racing to attract data centers, but the big question is whether power bills and grid upgrades will follow. Local Solar Wins: Oakland approved a 6MW solar farm expected to power about 1,600 homes.

Oil Shock: Brent pushed back above $100 a barrel as Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz risks returned, with analysts warning refined-fuel and shipping costs are rising even faster than crude—raising the odds of higher diesel and jet fuel prices. Middle East Energy Security: The US and Iran escalation cycle is tightening global supply expectations, while shipping disruptions add pressure to already sensitive routes. Nuclear Geopolitics: The US-Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation deal is now tied to Saudi normalization with Israel under the Abraham Accords, reviving proliferation concerns even as officials stress civilian-only safeguards. Philippines Grid Support: Manila’s Meralco is extending gas-fired power procurement beyond an expired deal to protect Luzon grid stability, despite higher costs. Southeast Asia Coal Risk: The Philippines is seeking supply assurances from Indonesia as Jakarta centralizes coal exports, threatening disruptions to a power mix heavily reliant on Indonesian coal. India Renewables Buildout: NTPC Green Energy commissioned 64.76 MW of a 225 MW solar project in Gujarat, while Bondada Engineering secured CEA energisation approval for a 300 MW solar project and a major battery storage contract. BESS M&A: Brookfield agreed to buy North American BESS developer Aypa Power for about $7B, expanding its contracted storage pipeline. China Renewables Push: China’s new five-year plan targets wind and solar to exceed half of installed capacity by 2030, with renewables generation set to surge. Local Energy Relief: The Philippines began one-time UPLIFT cash top-ups for 4Ps and Walang Gutom beneficiaries to cushion the energy emergency.